Stocks to Watch - January 24th, 2017
KeyBanc raises its Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX) price target from $78 to $87 and maintains an Overweight rating.
The new price target represents a 15% upside to yesterday's closing price.
The semiconductor company, Xilinx Inc. (XLNX) , will report third-quarter fiscal 2018 results. The Consensus Estimate for the quarter under review is pegged at 63 cents, which represents a 21.2% increase from the year-ago figure of 52 cents. Additionally, analysts polled by project revenues of roughly $630 million, up 7.6% from the prior-year quarter.
FST bought the stock recently after identifying a cup and handle pattern on the daily chart.
Stocks to Watch - November 30th, 2017
With so much noise masquerading as research and news online each week we scour the web to bring you quality. This was written by Philip Davis and we agree that these stocks should be on everyone's watchlist for 2018.
Macy's (NYSE:M) Macy's is a similar play to LB. L Brands really took off and is already up almost 40% - We like Macy's as an alternate because they are down for similarly silly reasons and they have a tremendous amount of real estate valued locked up - including their $4Bn flagship store at Herald Square - an entire city block in the center of Manhattan.
Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) - This is another way to play Natural Gas, and they do seem cheap, but I've not been able to get comfortable with what they have left after selling off a ton of assets. They are, at $3.81, a $3.4Bn company that made $300M in the past 12 months, and in theory, this is only the beginning of a turnaround. Still, they can't pull better numbers with higher oil prices and that makes me nervous - especially since we don't know if oil will hold over $50 next year. However it's too cheap to not have on your watchlist.
Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) People have lost faith in them as Team Trump has failed to come up with the promised Infrastructure Spending Bill, and there's certainly no sign of it in the current budget and no room for it with the Tax Cuts - if they go through. Still, Trump does love protectionism, and we expect tariffs on imported steel to boost CLF next year - assuming our economy doesn't collapse and people stop building. Still, more like a speculative stock than a guaranteed winner.
Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) While tempting down here - there's not enough certainty that there won't be another food scare though we are already playing them long in our Long-Term Portfolio since the premiums are so great. They'll make $10/share this year, and that's not terrible for a $275 stock, but what we really like about them is they made $15/share in 2015 - before all this nonsense and, if they can get back work - they have more stores now and better controls - they can blast through $15, and that would make them stupidly cheap fast. So, I do like them, but can I be sure they do all that in the next 12-24 months? No.
Hanesbrands (NYSE:HBI) Who doesn't love underwear? Well, maybe not love it, but we all wear it, and here we're talking about Hanes, Champion, Maidenform, Playtex, L'eggs, Wonderbra - staple brands you can find all around the World. Hanes doesn't care if Amazon (AMZN) sells its stuff or if it's at a retail store and, despite all the hullabaloo, AMZN still has less than 2% of the US Apparel market - and it's certainly not because no one has heard of them!
While we are huge fans of Amazon we believe the selling in the retail stocks is a bit stretched and it's why we're looking at beaten-down retailers on the overreaction selling that's taken that sector down. HBI is super-solid with $6Bn in sales and $600M in profits, and you can buy the whole company for $7Bn ($19.67) AND they pay a 2.6% (0.60) dividend while you wait. What's not to love?
General Electric (NYSE:GE) With $124Bn in sales and $9.5Bn in profits and about $40Bn in CASH overseas - it almost seems silly not to buy them for $157Bn, which is just 16.5 times earnings, 40% below the trading range of the S&P 500. They also pay a nice, 2.25% dividend (0.48), and that's after a cut that won't likely last. Still, this is a huge company in the middle of a long, slow turnaround so, like Chipotle, I can't be sure enough of the timing to hold a large position, though it has too much potential to not at least own some in a long term portfolio.
Stocks to Watch - October 30th, 2017
We own a starter position in our long term portfolio of MNKD at $3.83. Admittedly, we entered this stock a bit too early. Hindsight is 20/20 and even though we would love our entry cost to be .50 cents lower - we purchased it in our long term portfolio for a reason. Mannkind has been restructuring and we expect the stock to return to its past glory in 2018. While the stock is sitting at $3.37 (Friday's close) we are confident that over the next quarter our $3.83 entry will look like a wise decision. That being said we are eager to add to the position and lower our cost a bit depending on price action this week.
Inside MNKD's Recent Trend
MannKind Corporation (MNKD) lies in the lower part of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good buying opportunity. A break down through the resistance trend line at $3.12 will initially suggest a lower tendency for gains in the price and this might very well be an early sign that a trend shift is coming. Short-term traders are predicted to see a rally of 109.36% over the course of a quarter and, with 90% chance the price will be floating in the range of $6.53 and $15.58 in this timeframe.
MannKind Corporation Technical Signals
MNKD has witnessed its short term MA triggering a sell signal. Meanwhile, however, the long-term average has generated a buy signal. When the short-run moving average rises above its longer-term trend, a buy signal is created. This is because a short-run moving average that crosses its long-run moving average counterpart is seen as the initiation of an upward trend. On additional rally, the share price will meet short term resistance at around $3.78. On a drop, the stock is likely to find some support over the long run, which begins at $3.34. A buy signal will be generated if it crosses above the short term moving average. Meanwhile, however, a price crossing below the long term moving average will generate a sell signal. Its pivot point low generated buy signal on Wednesday October 25, 2017, which calls for additional surge until the stock forms a new pivot point high. There was increase in both volume and price. This is usually interpreted as a good sign as traders widely believe rising stock should see increasing volume.
MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) Support And Resistance Levels
MannKind Corporation (MNKD) recorded volume accumulation so there will probably be a surplus of buyers at $3.41. In case of gains, the next resistance from accumulated volume will not be far away from today's level at $3.54, $3.61 and $4.13.
Accumulated volume is going to prevent the price from rising further at $3.54 and this action will lead the price to take a temporary pause or stay muted for a few days.
MannKind Corporation (MNKD) Risk Assessment
A volatility based measure Bollinger Bands recognizes this as a highly volatile stock. In the most recent session, the stock price hovered around $0.44 between high and low, or 13.58%. The average volatility for the past week stood at 13.87%.
Long Term Daily Chart
MNKD traded well above $30 from 2013 to middle of 2015. Our analysis points to a $20+ stock on fundamentals alone over the next 12 months.
Stocks to Watch - October 23rd, 2017
AMD reports earnings after the bell on Tuesday Oct 24th. The weekly chart shoes continued consolidation over the past year with the chip maker staying above the 50 and 100 day EMAs while riding the 9 and 20 EMAs. A solid report can propel this stock to a new 52 week high.
AMD's new product lines are challenging market incumbents, with the new Radeon Vega taking on the flagship GTX 1080 from Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).
From that standpoint, the Q3 report is key for AMD. Investors and analysts will get a look at the sales being driven by the Vega, the new Ryzen line in GPUs, and Epyc datacenter chips. For most of this year, AMD stock has been relatively range-bound, as bulls and bears have argued about the prospects for its new lineup. On Tuesday afternoon, those traders will get their first answer.
It's a report to watch closely. I'd expect AMD stock to make a big move, given just how important the recent launches are to the long-term earnings growth prospects. Gross margin, in both Q3 results and Q4 guidance, will be an area of focus, as investors discern whether Advanced Micro Devices is trying to price its way to market share gains.
Weakness in that figure hit Advanced Micro Devices stock after Q1 - and a Q2 rebound led shares higher. From a fundamental standpoint, AMD still has a lot left to prove. And that will likely lead to post-earnings fireworks on Tuesday.
Notably, the company has a positive record of earnings surprises in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 35%.
In the last quarter, the company reported a loss of a penny per share, which was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 2 cents per share. Revenues increased 19% year over year to $1.22 billion, primarily driven by growing demand for the Graphics Processor Units (GPU) and an expanding customer base. Revenues also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.15 billion.
AMD expects third-quarter 2017 revenues to increase 23% sequentially (+/- 3%). At the mid-point, this reflects 15% growth on a year-over-year basis. Further, gross margin is likely to be 34%, while non-GAAP operating expenses are estimated to be $400 million.
AMD stock has gained 23% year to date, underperforming the 28.4% rally of the industry it belongs to.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Quote
The company also launched Radeon RX Vega, a gaming card aimed at enhancing experiences on PC gaming platforms. Additionally, arrival of 16-core, 32-thread Ryzen Threadripper 1950X and 12-core, 24-thread Ryzen Threadripper 1920X processors is a further positive for the company.
We believe these new launches will prove to be beneficial for the company's top line, thereby providing AMD with a competitive edge against industry peers like Intel (INTC) and NVIDIA (NVDA).
Stocks to Watch - October 16th, 2017
Tech Talk highlights stocks about to break out or breakdown technically.
FANG stock Facebook is trading very near a flat base buy point of 175.59, closing Friday at 173.74. The stock could soon break out to a new high, but it's important to point out a lagging Relative Strength line.The Relative Strength line measures a stock's price performance vs. the S&P 500. So if the line is trending higher, that signals outperformance.
For a breakout, a bullish indicator is the Relative Strength line hitting new high ground. Often times, the line at a new high confirms a breakout. That means that in the past, we've seen that when the line hits a new high, a breakout has a greater chance of succeeding.
While Facebook's Relative Strength line is lagging slightly in the last few weeks that doesn't necessarily mean that Facebook's breakout will fail. We've seen other signs of strength from Facebook lately. Namely, its performance around the 50-day line.
Amid a big tech sell-off in late September, Facebook breached the key 50-day line in heavy volume. While its move that day was bearish, shares quickly retook the line and found support their as they continued to climb up the right side of the base.
Watch the video below for more:
Stocks to Watch - Septermber 8th, 2017
GPRO: after building a year and a half base the stock seems to be starting to breakout and we are short term and long term buyers at these levels. It just broke out of triangle pattern today and expect the golden cross coming to propel it higher over the near term and break that mini double top @ 10.90... 9.75 major support and that should be used as your stop for the short term day traders. Our long term target is minimum double from this price and most likely a triple... Always remember the bigger the base the greater the move and we feel this one can be a grand slam for the long term holders!
FIT: has started to breakout today after a successful triple bottom was put in near the infamous 5 dolloar level which allows funds to buy above that price. We expect this stock to continue over the short and long term with a short term price target of 7.50 to 8 area. Short term support of 5.50 to 80 cent area should be good support and resistence is @6.80 with the appearance of a double top. We will be aggressive buyers above this level on a closing basis. Should this get back to 6 on a back and fill, feel comfortable to enter a position and become aggressive buyers above 6.80 resistance. Over the long term we can see this stock closing the gap down from higher levels back in Nov. around 12 for a double within 6 months.
Stocks to Watch - September 1st, 2017
Markets began the session in the green Thursday and never looked back going out near highs, again with the Nasdaq dominating with a gain of .95% and the Russell 2000 added 1%. Since a double bottom at 1350 it is now higher 7 of the last 10 days and is now challenging its 50 day SMA. The S&P 500 rose .6% and for the week headed into Friday the Nasdaq has gained 2.6%, doubling the 1.2% jump for the S&P 500. Looking at individual groups healthcare was a clear standout with the XLV higher by 1.7% and followed up by an impressive materials gain of .8% and energy and technology were the other solid actors. As tech heats up it may be a good idea to watch names that are NOT participating as this could be a tell if things turn sour. Below is the chart of AAOI and how it was looked at in our Friday 8/18 Game Plan. This name was a beloved darling on Wall Street but is now 43% off most recent all time highs and not surprisingly it found trouble right at the very round par figure last month. The measured move is a bit large and never a science but one could logically see a move to the 200 day SMA which would cause a reset and lets both bulls and bears reassess. The stock is LOWER by 5.1% this week as the Nasdaq is perking up. Buyer beware. For a second consecutive day utilities and staples languished near the bottom of the sector showings. It would be wise to mention however that the XLU lost ground just 7 days in all of August with the largest daily loss of the seven just .7%. One caveat for the ETF is the break above a recent cup base trigger of 54.73 on 8/22 was V shaped, often failure prone as one wants to see the shape more smoothed and round.
Stocks that can be bought after recent bullish falling wedge breakouts are VRTX. VRTX is a healthcare play higher by 118% YTD and 65% over the last one year period. Earnings higher by .7 and 3.6% on 4/28 and 1/25 a loss of 4.4% on 7/27 and an UNCH finish on 10/26. The stock is lower 3 of the last 5 weeks and this week is higher by 4.9% this week so far and just 4% off most recent all time highs. It is trading taut since huge weekly gain of 24.6% ending 7/21 and acting well POST breakout from nearly 2 year weekly cup base trigger of 143.55 week ending 7/21 which began week of 8/14/15. VRTX broke above a 155 bullish falling wedge last week. Enter here.
Trigger VRTX here. Stop 149.
Stocks that can be bought after recent breakouts above cup with handles formations are NBIX. NBIX is a healthcare play higher by 46% YTD and 14% over the last one year period. Earnings are moving in the right direction with three consecutive gains advancing 9.5, 1.6 and 2.2% on 8/4, 5/10 and 2/15 after a loss of 5.6% on 11/3. The stock is higher 8 of the last 11 weeks and by 7.1% this week headed into Friday. It blasted above the 55 number which has been thorny resistance last September and November and this April-May and August. That can also be considered a long ascending triangle as it has made higher lows but lets look to enter NBIX here after nice break Thursday above a cup with handle trigger of 55.32.
Trigger NBIX here. Stop 52.50.
Stocks that can be bought after powerful breaks above their 50 day SMAs are LVS. LVS is a leisure play higher by 16% YTD and 24% over the last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 4.7%. Earnings have been mixed with gains of 1 and 4.1% on 7/27 and 11/4 and losses .1 and 7.5% on 4/27 and 1/26. The stock is lower 7 of the last 10 weeks and now 6% off most recent 52 week highs and the last 3 have all CLOSED taut all within just .46 of each other. It has recorded just two CLOSES below round 60 number since blasting above the figure on 6/1 higher by nearly 5% on the second best volume of '17 so far. Enter LVS here after todays reclaim of its 50 day SMA and add to through cup base trigger of 66.32.
Trigger LVS here. Stop 59.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out weekly cup base triggers are VALE. VALE is a Brazilian materials play higher by 45% YTD and 103% over last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 3%. Earnings have been mixed with gains of .2 and .6% on 7/27 and 10/27 and losses of 3.5 and 4.4% on 4/27 and 2/23. The stock is higher 8 of the past 10 weeks and by 3.6% this week headed into Fridayand the move included weekly gains of 7.1, 7.2 and 6.5% ending 6/30, 7/28 and 8/25 and volume trends are very firm. Enter VALE with buy stop above 6 month long weekly cup base trigger of 11.80. The break above negates bearish engulfing weekly candle ending 2/24 and put name at close to 3 year highs.
Trigger VALE 11.80. Stop 10.60.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out bull flag formations are DXC. DXC is a recent merger between CSC and Hewlett division higher by 27% since inception this spring. There have been just two earnings reactions thus far with an UNCH finish on 5/26 and a powerful gain on 8/9 of 7.1%. The stock is on a current 4 week winning streak higher by 8% in the process and up 7 of the last 8 and has delivered solid action POST breakout from a cup base trigger of 80.93 on 8/9 (the pattern could have been interpreted as a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern too). Enter DXC with a buy stop above bull flag trigger of 86 which carries a measured move to 95.
Trigger DXC 86. Stop 84.
Stocks to be viewed as shorting opportunities are CSX. CSX is a rail play higher by 40% YTD and 78% over the last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 1.6%. Earnings have been mostly higher with gains of 5.6, 3.1 and 4.4% on 4/20, 10/13 and 7/13 and losses of 5.1 and 3.2% on 7/19 and 1/18. The stock is lower 4 of the last 6 weeks and higher by 2.8% heading into Friday and now trades in correction mode 10% off most recent 52 week highs. It is now below its 50 day SMA for seven weeks and that line is sloping lower. Short CSX here at round 50 number and add to below bearish head and shoulders trigger of 47.50 which would carry a measured move to 40.
Trigger CSX here. Buy stop 51.40.
Buy after recent bullish falling wedge breakout VRTX here. Stop 149.
Buy after recent break above cup with handle trigger NBIX here. Stop 52.50.
Buy after reclaim of 50 day SMA LVS here. Stop 59.
Buy stop above weekly cup base trigger VALE 11.80. Stop 10.60.
Buy stop above bull flag pattern DXC 86. Stop 84.
Short at round numbers CSX here. Buy stop 51.40.
Stocks to Watch - August 31st, 2017
Markets displayed resilience Wednesday and one is starting to feel a bit better each day as the Nasdaq continues to show the way. One day after a very impressive reversal it followed through smartly rising 1%. The tech rich index now has the look of a cup base pattern under construction and is just 1% off recent all time highs. A move above 6460 would be a breakout and negate an ugly bearish engulfing candle from the 7/27 session. The S&P 500 reclaimed its 50 day SMA today rising .5% and the Russell 2000 gained .6% and for the ninth day in a row has CLOSED at the highs for the daily range, a bullish trait. The rally was broad based looking at individual sectors as financials showed some vigor with the XLF higher by .3%. The strong private jobs report could lead to a vibrant economy and give the banks the leverage to increase rates. For those who believe strongly in CLOSING prices the recent weakness came after a failure to break above a cup base trigger of 25.40, which missed by one penny on 8/4 and was backed up by a bearish shooting star candle on 8/8. Technology was upbeat once again Wednesday with the XLK up .7%. The resurgence of the Nasdaq can be attributed in large part to the semiconductors and the SMH broke above a symmetrical triangle trigger of 87 today and targets a move to 96. ADI produced some enthusiasm in the group after an earnings report delivered a gain of 5.2%. We mentioned XLNX in our opening paragraph yesterday, and below is another name showing some toughness. MU which was profiled in our Thursday 8/24 Game Plan is higher by more than 4% this week thus far. More positive signs were the staples and utilities among the worst sectors today, keeping company with the horrible energy space.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out bull flag triggers are EL. EL is a best in breed consumer play higher by 38% YTD and 16% over last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 1.3%. Earnings momentum powerful with three consecutive gains of 7.7, 4.4 and 2.6% on 8/18, 5/3 and 2/2 after a loss of 5.4% on 11/2. The stock is on a 3 week winning streak up a combined 7% and has advanced 15 of the last 20 weeks and potentially could complete a bullish 3 week tight pattern depending on Fridays close. EL now shows a bull flag pattern and enter with a buy stop above 107 which carries a measured move to 116.
Trigger EL 107. Stop 104.
Stocks that can be bought on their initial touches of their 50 day SMAs after recent breakouts are CINF. CINF is an insurance play higher by 1% YTD and over the last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 2.6%. Earnings momentum is headed in right direction with back to back gains of 4.3 and 1.6% on 8/3 and 4/27 after losses of .1 and 1.2% on 2/9 and 10/26. The stock is lower 2 of the last 3 weeks, but prior to that advanced 10 of 11 weeks ending between 5/26-8/4 going from round 70 to 80 numbers. CINF recently filled in gap from 8/2 session and look to enter on first touch of 50 day SMA at 76 following the break above a cup base trigger of 75.43 on 7/25.
Trigger CINF 76. Stop 73.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out double bottom triggers are RGEN. RGEN is a best of breed healthcare play higher by 38% YTD and 35% over last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 1.3%. Earnings momentum is going the right way with three straight positive reactions higher by 1.1, 6.2 and 6% on 8/3, 5/4 and 2/22 after a loss of 5.7% on 11/3. The stock is down 5 of the last 9 weeks and 9% off most recent 52 week highs after the big week ending 6/23's gain of 15.6%. All have CLOSED above the round 40 number with 8 of the last 9 weeks touching the 40 number intraweek. It is still trading near the secondary offering price of 42.75 recently and enter RGEN with a buy stop above a double bottom trigger of 43.44.
Trigger RGEN 43.44. Stop 41.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out their 50 day SMAs and add to above future valid base triggers are PKI. PKI is a healthcare play higher by 27% YTD and 22% over last one year period and sports a small dividend yield of .4%. Earnings have been mostly lower with losses of 3.1, 3.1 and 2.2% on 8/4, 2/3 and 11/8 and a gain of 1.8% on 5/5. The stock is lower 4 of the last 5 weeks and now 6% off most recent 52 week highs and notice the hesitancy at round 70 number in late July. It has recorded nice bullish engulfing candles on 8/11 and 8/21 and is now on 8 session winning streak. Enter PKI with a buy stop above 50 day SMA at 67 and add to through cup base trigger of 70.26.
Trigger PKI 67. Stop 65.
Stocks to be considered shorting opportunities are WHR NBL. WHR is an industrial lower by 7% YTD and over the last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 2.6%. Earnings have been mostly lower with losses of 6.3, 8.5 and 10.8% on 7/27, 1/26 and 10/25 and a gain of 3.5% on 4/25. The stock is lower 5 of the last 6 weeks and now rests 17% off most recent 52 week highs after running into stiff resistance at the very round 200 number on 6/14, 6/20 and 7/19 (had looked like a nice long weekly cup pattern was beginning week ending 2/6/15 but 4 week tight period ending between 2/6-27/15 broke LOWER). The stock is up just 9 days so far in August and WHR has formed a bear flag formation. Enter with a sell stop below 167 which carries a measured move to 152.
Trigger WHR 167. Buy stop 170.50.
NBL is a lagging energy play lower by 38% YTD and 33% over the last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 1.7%. Earnings momentum is going in the wrong direction with three consecutive losses of 8, 2.7 and 2.1% on 8/3, 5/2 and 2/14 and a loss of 2% on 11/1. The stock is lower 18 of the last 29 weeks and is now off 44% most recent 52 week highs. On the weekly chart one can also see the lower low made recently below the week ending 1/22/16. The last 2 weeks have finished UNCH and that has the possibility of a 3 week tight pattern depending on Fridays CLOSE. Look to enter NBL with a short as a sell stop below 22.75 which carries a measured move to 17.
Trigger NBL 22.75. Buy stop 24.15.
Buy stop above bull flag trigger EL 107. Stop 104.
Buy initial touch of 50 day SMA following breakout CINF 76. Stop 73.
Double bottom trigger RGEN 43.44. Stop 41.
Buy stop above 50 day SMA PKI 67. Stop 65.
Sell stop to short below bear flag WHR 167. Buy stop 170.50.
Sell stop to short below bear flag NBL 22.75. Buy stop 24.15.
Stocks to Watch - August 30th, 2017
Yesterday's Tech Talk Nailed JUNO - up almost $10 in Tuesday's session.
Markets shrugged off some early weakness Tuesday as the Nasdaq led the way and the more that continues investors could be confident that the worst could be behind them. The Nasdaq added .3% after being lower by .8% in the mid morning hours. Bears could point to the lack of volume that accompanied the turnaround, but again PRICE action is omnipotent. With all the hoopla August brings the month will be over Thursday and with the Nasdaq there has been just 4 sessions so far this month that moved up or down by more than 1% and it stands lower by roughly 1% month to date so far. It did CLOSE above the 50 day SMA Tuesday. There does seem to be a tug of war going on with the major indexes with their 50 day SMAs and the Dow managed to bounce off that important line for the second time in seven days. The Russell 2000 was able to finish above its 200 day SMA, recording a bullish hammer in the process, and is on a 4 day winning streak and is making a habit of bullishly CLOSING in the upper half of its daily range. Looking at individual sectors it was encouraging to see the industrials and technology leading the way with the XLI and XLK higher by .7 and .4% respectively. Gold put in an interesting candle Tuesday as the GLD recorded a bearish counterattack candle. The PEP chart suggests that cautious names may be losing their luster as the name is lower 7 of the last 9 sessions. Getting back to the risk on inspired move today the semiconductors are starting to act better. Below is the chart of XLNX and how it appeared in our Wednesday 8/23 Game Plan. Notice how a "cluster of evidence" occurred with the stock as it bounced off its 200 day SMA, the 60 number all while filling in a gap from 4/26. It now enjoys a 7 day winning streak and has gained more than 4 handles since the look.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out bull flag formations are OSUR. OSUR is a healthcare play higher by 128% YTD and 155% over last one year period. Earnings momentum is powerful with three consecutive double digit gains advancing 16.7, 18.4 and 18.5% on 8/3, 5/4 and 2/9 after an UNCH finish on 11/3. The stock is higher 3 of the last 4 weeks digesting the big weekly jump of 15.9% ending 8/4, but to be balanced the last 3 have all CLOSED in the lower half of the weekly range (the last 4 have all finished above very round 20 figure though too). OSUR has formed a bull flag formation with just one daily CLOSE below 20 on 8/17 and enter with a buy stop above 20.75 which carries a measured move to 25.
Trigger OSUR 20.75. Stop 19.
Stocks that can be bought as they pullback into the round numbers are CGNX. CGNX is a best in breed tech play higher by 66% YTD and 111% over last one year period and sports a small dividend yield of .3%. Earnings momentum has been excellent with gains of 10.7, 5.4, 8.5 and 8% on 8/1, 5/2, 2/17 and 8/2/16 and an UNCH finish on 11/1. The stock is on an 8 week winning streak and has risen 31 of last 42 doubling since the week ending 11/11/16 (six of down weeks fell less than 1%). It has acted well POST breakout from cup base trigger of 98.09 on 8/1 and has held round 100 number very well, with just one CLOSE below on 8/10. CGNX is a few percent from par but enter on pullback at 103.
Trigger CGNX 103. Stop 96.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out their 50 day SMAs and added to above future valid base triggers are BSX ORCL. BSX is a healthcare play higher by 25% YTD and 13% over the last one year period. Earnings have been mixed with gains of .8 and 4.8% on 4/27 and 2/2 and losses of 1.3 and 1.6% on 7/27 and 10/26. The stock is lower 7 of the last 9 weeks but the damage has been subdued as it rests just 5% from most recent 52 week highs. It also retested the 25.75 cup base trigger which was taken out on 4/26 on 5/18 and earlier this month. Enter BSX with a buy stop above its 50 day SMA at 27.35 and add to through a double bottom trigger of 28.16.
Trigger BSX 27.35. Stop 26.60.
ORCL is an "Old tech" play higher by 29% YTD and 20% over the last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 1.5%. It has nice earnings momentum with back to back earnings gains of 8.6 and 6.2% on 6/22 and 3/16 after losses of 4.3 and 4.7% on 12/16 and 9/16. The stock is just higher 4 of the last 9 weeks but everyone of those has traded within the big weekly gain of 13% ending 6/23. It has acted well POST breakout from a 47.09 cup base trigger taken out on 6/22 and has hugged its 50 day SMA since falling below it on 8/10 and the line is still upward sloping. Look to enter ORCL with a buy stop above 50 day which aligns with very round 50 figure at 49.75 and add to through double bottom trigger of 51.46.
Trigger ORCL 49.75. Stop 48.50.
Stocks to be viewed as shorting opportunities are NKE CHD. NKE is a retail play higher by 4% YTD and lower by 11% over last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 1.4%. Earnings have been mixed with gains of 11 and 1% on 6/30 and 12/21 and losses of 7 and 3.8% on 3/22 and 9/28. The stock is looking at potential 4 week losing streak depending on Fridays CLOSE and is down 2.2% this week so far and now 13% off most recent 52 week highs and was unable to successfully fill in gap from 6/29. NKE did CLOSE above round 60 number on 8/3 for one session like it did on 8/24/16 (round 50 number has been good support since week ending 3/20/15). Enter at 53 near todays break below bear flag which carries a measured move to 46.
Trigger NKE 53. Buy stop 54.75.
CHD is a defensive staple play higher by 12% YTD and UNCH over last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 1.5%. Earnings have been mixed with gains of 4.3 and 4% on 5/4 and 2/7 and losses of 1.8 and 6.6% on 8/3 and 11/3. The stock is lower 3 of the last 4 weeks and has not made much of a stand since the big weekly loss of 5.5% ending 8/4. It is flirting with the very round 50 figure which was resistance dating back to the weeks ending 5/20-9/9/16 and again from 2/17-5/19/17. CHD has a 50 day SMA which is declining and the stock is underneath it and approaching its 200 day SMA. Enter with a sell stop to short below a bear flag trigger of 49.30 which carries a measured move to 44.50.
Trigger CHD 49.30. Buy stop 50.50.
Buy stop above bull flag trigger OSUR 20.75. Stop 19.
Buy at round numbers CGNX 103. Stop 96.
Buy stop above 50 day SMA BSX 27.35. Stop 26.60.
Buy stop above 50 day SMA ORCL 49.75. Stop 48.50.
Short into bear flag retest NKE 53. Buy stop 54.75.
Sell stop to short below bear flag CHD 49.30. Buy stop 50.50.
Stocks to Watch - August 29th, 2017
Markets were mostly flat to start the week, but the Nasdaq did outdo the Dow and S&P 500, gaining .3%. Looking at the Nasdaq chart it seems to be stalling right at its 50 day SMA, something it did not do in April and July this year as it quickly recaptured the line and charged northward. The S&P 500 is doing the same thing and notice how the last 4 sessions have all finished within the daily range of the 8/22 day. I really like taut trade, but would be much more confident if this action was taking place ABOVE the 50 day SMA. Peering into individual sectors healthcare was the clear winner with the XLV adding .5%. The ETF is moving toward a test of its own 50 day and is now higher 5 of the last 6 days following a bullish engulfing candle on 8/21. Monday did manage to bring about some M&A activity. The big one was GILD taking out KITE at a hefty premium and both the acquirer and acquiree advanced, often a good sign. GILD has been a serial under performer within its group and perhaps it could return to its former mojo. It recently recorded a bullish golden cross, but more importantly has now CLOSED six straight weeks above its 200 day SMA, a line it has been below for almost 2 years prior and it is beginning to flatten out and of course bulls would enjoy seeing that start to slope upward. Below is the chart of peer JUNO and how it appeared in our Thursday 8/10 Game Plan. Last week it rocketed higher by nearly 14% and it has three other weekly gains of better than 7% since the week of 6/16. Surely its big jump today was in sympathy with the KITE news and one would be prudent to await a pullback before entering. Another deal not widely mentioned today was in the semiconductor group with IXYS being bought, again at a rosy premium gaining 40%.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out bull flag triggers are EA. EA is a best in breed technology play higher by 51% YTD and 46% over last one year period. Earnings have been mostly higher with gains of .5, 12.6 and 1.6% on 7/28, 5/10 and 11/2 and a loss of .5% on 2/1. The stock is higher 6 of the last 8 weeks and 15 of the last 20 and has strong peers within the sector as ATVI and TTWO perform well with all three right near all time highs. Notice how stock was unable to CLOSE above round 120 number on 7/27 and 8/22 after trading above intraday. Enter EA with a buy stop above bull flag trigger of 120.25 which carries measured move to 136.
Trigger EA 120.25. Stop 116.
Stocks that can be bought after recent gap fills are FB. FB is a FANG play higher by 45% YTD and 34% over last one year period. Earnings have been mostly lower with exception of most recent gain of 2.9% on 7/27 and the prior three all lost ground down .6, 1.8 and 5.6% on 5/4, 2/2 and 11/3. The stock is on 4 week losing streak but stock just 5% off recent all time highs and the last 4 weeks however have all traded within week ending 7/28 and consolidating 4 week winning streak that rose 13.5% ending between 7/7-28. Enter FB here on gap fill on 8/21 from the 7/26 session. Could be viewed as bull flag too and add to with break above 170.50 which has a measured move to 192.
Trigger FB here. Stop 161.
Stocks that can be bought out after recent bull flag breakouts are WIFI LL NVO. WIFI is a telecommunications play higher by 66% YTD and 145% over the last one year period. Earnings have been solid with three double digit gains in the last four higher by 27.2, 13.5 and 11.7% on 8/4, 5/5 and 11/4 and a small loss of .7% on 3/8. The stock is higher by a combined 8.6% the last 2 weeks and that is not long after the huge weekly advance of 29.7% ending 8/4. It has acted well POST breakout from a 17.20 cup base trigger taken out on 8/4. Today it recorded its second consecutive CLOSE above the very round 20 number and took out a bull flag trigger of 19.50. Enter WIFI here.
Trigger WIFI here. Stop 18.80.
LL is a homebuilder periphery play higher by 146% YTD and 142% over last one year period. Earnings have been energetic with double digit moves the last four, rising by 35.9 and 17.1% on 8/1 and 2/21 and losses of 13.8 and 16.1% on 5/2 and 10/31. The stock demonstrated excellent relative strength last week adding 5.2% last week and another 4.4% today after Harvey gave it a boost, and this is after the giant 42.6% weekly gain ending 8/4. It has acted well POST breakout from a 30.75 cup base trigger on 8/1 (notice round 20 number was resistance on 9/29-10/7/16 before breaking above on 3/31 and 30 number was resistance between 5/22-6/2). Enter LL on a pullback into break above bull flag trigger of 37.50 at 38.
Trigger LL 38. Stop 36.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out bull flag formations are NVO EA. NVO is a European pharma play higher by 31% YTD and UNCH over last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 2.1%. Earnings momentum is headed in right direction with nice back to back gains of 8.3 and 5.6% on 8/9 and 5/3 after losses of 8.7, 12.9 and 9.7% on 2/2, 10/28 and 8/5. The stock the last couple weeks has been consolidating the big weekly gain of 8.9% ending 8/11 and did score a very powerful gain rising 9 of 10 weeks ending between 3/31-6/2 including big weekly gains of 7.8, 5.7 and 5.5% ending 4/28, 5/5 and 6/2. Enter NVO at 46.30 on pullback into todays bull flag breakout which carries a measured move to 52.
Trigger NVO 46.30. Stop 44.60.
Stocks that can be bought as they fill in gaps are Q. Q is a healthcare play higher by 25% YTD and 26% over the last one year period. Earnings momentum is softening with back to back losses of .6 and 3.2% on 8/3 and 5/3 after gains of 2.9 and 1% on 2/14 and 11/2. The stock rose 7.9% last week on the fifth best weekly volume and the best weekly volume of this year. Not surprisingly it was halted within five pennies of the very round par number, recording a bearish shooting star candle in the process. It has acted well POST breakout from a symmetrical triangle just above the round 80 number in late April and now look to enter on a gap fill from the session at 95.50.
Trigger Q 95.50. Stop 91.
Buy stop above bull flag EA 120.25. Stop 116.
Buy after recent gap fill FB here. Stop 161.
Buy after recent bull flag breakout WIFI here. Stop 18.80.
Buy after recent bull flag breakout LL 38. Stop 36.
Buy after recent bull flag breakout NVO 46.30. Stop 44.60.
Buy on gap fill Q 95.50. Stop 91.
Stocks to Watch - August 24th, 2017
Markets never saw the green of day Wednesday but the damage was somewhat muted as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fell .3% and the Russell 2000 acted a bit better dropping .1% and has now managed to CLOSE in the upper half of its daily range for four consecutive sessions. The Nasdaq which I like the key in on lost less than one quarter of the previous days gains and volume was a bit lighter as well. It also remained above its 50 day SMA, something the S&P 500 was unable to achieve. Looking at individual sector performance only two were able to finish higher, that being energy and those pesky utilities. The clear laggards were healthcare, cyclicals and industrials. Peering into some retail names that reported earnings witnessed some extreme bifurcation, which has become the norm. Housing periphery plays which have been acting poorly continued that theme today as LZB slumped more than 20%, almost the exact opposite of its last reaction on 6/21 which gained 22.1%. LOW slipped 3.5% and that name has lost ground 11 of the last 15 weeks. More concerning has been the excellent behavior in some of the real laggards (most likely short covering) as AEO and EXPR both rose 7.8 and 19.5% and they are still even after today lower by 37 and 60% from most recent 52 week highs. Getting back to tech and always deploying capital to best of breed plays below is the chart of VRSN and how it appeared in our Thursday 8/17 Game Plan. The stock is putting up some good relative strength thus far this week higher by 2.9% heading into Thursday as the Nasdaq has risen by 1%. It like RHT is battling with CLOSING above the very round par figure and is looking to do so for the first time in four weeks, and maybe more importantly for just the second time since the year 2000.
Stocks that can be bought at the round numbers are WMT. WMT is a best in breed retail play higher by 16% YTD and 10% over the last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 2.5%. Earnings have been mostly higher with gains of 3.2, 3 and 1.9% on 5/18, 2/21 and 8/18/16 and losses of 1.6 and 3.1% on 8/17 and 11/17. The stock is on a 2 week losing streak, but the combined damage was less than 2% (it is slipping the wrong way from a 3 week tight pattern with the 3 weeks ending between 7/28-8/11 all CLOSING within just .67 of each other). It put on a nice show advancing 19 of 22 session between 7/11-8/9 and is now just below a 80.57 cup base trigger taken out on 8/3. Enter WMT here.
Trigger WMT here. Stop 77.
Stocks that can be bought after recent bull flag breakouts are MT. MT is an Indian steel play higher by 20% YTD and 39% over last one year period. Earnings have been mixed with gains of .7 and 6.3% on 7/28 and 2/10 and losses of 6.4% on both 5/12 and 11/8. The stock is higher 8 of the last 9 weeks gaining 30% in the process and the last 4 have all CLOSED tight all within just .35 of each other. MT is hanging near bull flag breakout trigger of 26.50 (has measured move to 33) taken out on 8/7 and notice nice bounce off round 20 number and add to above a cup with handle pivot of 27.58. This name could satisfy those looking for international exposure within a strong materials group.
Trigger MT here. Stop 25.
Stocks that can be bought after recent successful initial touches of their 50 day SMAs after recent breakouts are FTV. FTV is a technology spin off from DHR higher by 21% YTD and 25% over last one year period and sports a small dividend yield of .4%. It has excellent earnings history with four consecutive positive reactions gaining 3, 1.5, 1 and 5.7% on 7/28, 4/28, 2/8 and 10/28. The stock lost 3.2% last 2 weeks, but gained 6.1% the prior two ending between 7/28-8/4. FTV took out a double bottom trigger of 65 on 8/1 during a solid 8 session winning streak. Enter here on pullback into first touch of 50 day SMA since breakout.
Trigger FTV here. Stop 63.90.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out their 50 day SMAs and added to above future valid base triggers are MU. MU is a semiconductor play higher by 39% YTD and 87% over the last one year period. Earnings have been mixed with solid gains of 7.4 and 12.7% on 3/24 and 12/22 and losses of 5.1 and .6% on 6/30 and 10/5. The stock looking for 3 week winning streak and showed excellent relative strength last week up 8.5%. It has tripled since round 10 number after big week ending 5/20/16 jumped 13%. Enter MU with a buy stop above 50 day SMA at 30.75 and add to through double bottom trigger of 32.45.
Trigger MU 30.75. Stop 29.15.
Stocks that can be bought after recent bullish ascending triangle patterns are CRM. CRM is a best in breed tech play higher by 36% YTD and 20% over last one year period. Earnings have been mostly higher with gains of .1, 3 and 3.4% on 8/23, 3/1 and 11/18 and a small loss of .4% on 5/19. The stock is higher by 2.5% this week heading into Thursday with a nice 2.8% gain last week and notice it started the year off with a 10 week winning streak ending between 1/6-3/10 that rose a gradual 15 handles in the time frame. It successfully retested a weekly cup base trigger of 84.58 the week ending 6/16 and CRM broke above a bullish ascending triangle trigger of 92.25. Enter here.
Trigger CRM here. Stop 89.
Stocks that can be viewed as shorting opportunities are SRCL. SRCL is a healthcare laggard lower by 8% YTD and 17% over the last one year period. Earnings have been mostly higher with three consecutive positive reactions of 1.5, 7.7 and 7.8% on 5/5, 2/16 and 10/28 before a recent loss of 5.2% on 8/4. The stock is lower 12 of the last 15 weeks and now 19% off most recent 52 week highs and last week fell .5% after the previous week fell 9.5%, not a great rebound (there have been some big weekly losses in recent memory including weeks ending 10/23/15, 4/29/16 and 7/29/16 which fell 19.5, 22.9 and 15.8%). SRCL now sports a bear flag formation aligning with round 70 number and look to short with a sell stop below 69.75 which carries a measured move to 57.
Trigger SRCL 69.75. Buy stop 73.
Buy at round numbers WMT here. Stop 77.
Buy after recent bull flag breakout MT here. Stop 25.
Buy initial touch of rising 50 day SMA after recent breakout FTV here. Stop 63.90.
Buy stop above 50 day SMA MU 30.75. Stop 29.15.
Buy after recent break above bullish ascending triangle CRM here. Stop 89.
Sell stop to short below bear flag SRCL 69.75. Buy stop 73.
Stocks to Watch - August 22nd, 2017
Markets were flat to start the week and bulls are not under the assumption that the old adage never to sell a dull market applies today. There having been many days were the benchmarks were near the UNCH line, and it seems that it is either that or big moves lately mostly in the lower direction. The bulls can at least point to today that the markets did CLOSE near the days highs, something it has been unable to achieve recently. The Nasdaq is now down 12 of the last 18 sessions and on a 3 day losing streak, with all three CLOSING underneath its 50 day SMA. That important line to beginning to flatline and bulls are looking for that to be temporary. The tech rich index was the worst performer of the big three falling less than 1% and the Dow and S&P 500 were higher by .1 (the Russell 2000 lost .1%). Peering into individual sectors it was the staples and utilities acting well once again, with the XLP up .4 and the XLU adding .3% and the XLV advancing .5%. There seems to be a lot of talk of gold recently, perhaps with perma bears coming out of hibernation with the market "seemingly" on the ropes. Looking at the GLD itself the chart looks to have put in a triple top at the 123 number from the 4/17, 6/6 and 8/18 sessions. On a longer term view, which to me are better predictors, it has the potential of completing a bullish 3 week tight pattern and has formed a bullish ascending triangle and a break above 124 has a measured move to 141. Looking at some individual names in the space below is the chart of NEM and how it was reviewed in our Wednesday 8/2 Game Plan. It is still a few percentage points away but one should keep a close eye on that 38 level.
Stocks that can be bought at round numbers are BLUE. BLUE is a healthcare play higher by 50% YTD and 73% over the last one year period. Earnings momentum is headed in right direction with three straight gains of 2.8, 6.8 and 5.8% on 8/3, 5/4 and 2/23 and a loss of 11% on 11/3. The stock is on a 3 week losing streak and now lower by 26% from recent 52 week highs and is most likely digesting big 40% gain from 2 weeks ending 6/2-9, and nearly filled in gap on 8/3 from 6/2 session and back below 94.10 double bottom trigger taken out on 6/6. Enter BLUE at 91.50 near the round 90 number and then add to above 50 day SMA, which is now downward sloping, and then through double bottom trigger of 103.
Trigger BLUE 91.50. Stop 86.
Stocks that can be bought after recent gap fills are MAR. MAR is a leisure play higher by 20% YTD and 34% over the last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 1.3%. Earnings have been decent with gains of 6.4 and 2.7% on 5/9 and 11/8, an UNCH finish on 2/16 and a loss of 2.1% on 8/8. The stock is lower 5 of the last 11 weeks including an ugly bearish engulfing week ending 8/11 that lost 5.3% in heavy volume. Still a leader as it ran higher 24 of 32 weeks ending between 10/28/16-6/2. It is 11% off most recent all time highs but on Friday recorded a spinning top candle which often indicate a change in direction of preceding trend. MAR also filled in gap from 5/8 session as well on 8/18. Enter here and add to above 50 day SMA then through double bottom trigger of 107.73.
Trigger MAR here. Stop 96.50.
Stocks that can be bought as they fill in gaps are PETS. PETS is a pet pharmacy play higher by 81% YTD and 108% over last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 1.9%. It has excellent earnings momentum with four consecutive gains of 27.2, 3.7, 7.7 and 1.8% on 7/24 (rose another 11.3% on 7/25), 4/28, 3/3 and 11/3 after a loss of 14.1% on 8/5. The stock rose 15 of 18 weeks ending between 3/31-7/28 gaining 150% traveling between the round 20 and 50 numbers during that time. Last week fell 7.3% and Monday slumped 5.8%, but it is looking to fill in a gap from the 7/21 session which aligns with the round 40 number. Enter PETS at 40.75.
Trigger PETS 40.75. Stop 39.
Stocks that can be bought near prior cup base breakout triggers are STO. STO is an energy play UNCH YTD and higher by 12% over last one year period and sports a nice dividend yield of 4.8%. Earnings have been mixed with gains of 3.2 and 1.6% on 7/27 and 10/27 and losses of .6 and 5.2% on 5/4 and 2/7. The stock is higher 5 of the last 6 weeks including a 4 week winning streak ending between 7/14-8/4 that rose more than 15%. It has a few technical things to like including a successful gap fill in late June from the 5/4 session and is now trading near a 18.49 cup base trigger taken out on 7/28. Enter here and add to above a bull flag trigger of 18.55 which a breakout carries a measured move to 21.
Trigger STO here. Stop 17.80.
Stocks that can be bought at their 200 day SMAs are LITE. LITE is a 2 year old tech play higher by 32% YTD and 48% over last one year period and has advanced 200% since July '15. Earnings mostly lower with a recent loss of 3.1% on 8/9 after back to back jumps of 9.9 and 14% on 5/4 and 2/8 and 3 straight losses of 3.7, 1 and 1.4% on 10/28, 8/10 and 5/5. The stock is lower 4 of the last 5 weeks including 3 weeks ending between 7/28-8/11 which slumped by a combined 19%, and last week rose by 5 pennies and CLOSED in lower half of weekly range. LITE is now 26% off most recent all time highs and enter on touch of 200 day SMA at 49.25 knowing last time it felt its 200 day in early May registered solid gain.
Trigger LITE 49.25. Stop 47.
Stocks to be considered shorting opportunities are BLMN. BLMN is a casual dining laggard lower by 4% YTD and 11% over the last one year period and sports a dividend yield of 1.8%. Earnings have been decent with three straight gains of 5.9, 5.3 and 2.2% on 4/26, 2/17 and 10/28 before a most recent loss of 10.8% on 7/26. The stock is higher 2 of the last 3 weeks, with the last 2 higher by less than 2%, and it is now back below the CLOSING week low from week ending 7/28 and Monday dropped another 2.7% recording a bearish engulfing candle in the process. Look to short BLMN here as it undercut a bear flag trigger of 17.50 today. The breakdown carries a measured move to 13.50.
Trigger BLMN here. Buy stop 18.10.
Buy at round numbers BLUE 91.50. Stop 86.
Buy after recent gap fill MAR here. Stop 96.50.
Buy gap fill PETS 40.75. Stop 39.
Buy after recent cup base breakout STO here. Stop 17.80.
Enter at 200 day SMA LITE 49.25. Stop 47.
Short after recent bear flag breakdown BLMN here. Buy stop 18.10
Markets finished an ugly week with the major averages giving up all there early afternoon gains Fridayafter some weakness in the morning. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 lost .1%, the S&P 500 .2% and the Dow by .3%. The Nasdaq is now 4% off most recent all time highs and although the index is still making higher highs and lows, it is feeling heavy as it sliced its 50 day SMA Thursday for the second time in just 6 sessions. The tech heavy benchmark fell .64% this week and has fallen four straight with all CLOSING at the lows for the weekly range. The back to back weekly doji candles on the S&P 500 ending 7/28 and 8/4 seem to be taking a toll and it fell by nearly an identical amount for the week as the Nasdaq. It seems like it wants to test the comfort of the round 2400 figure which was resistance this March, April and May. The Russell 2000 which seems to be garnering a lot of attention lately is now lower 12 of the last 18 days and although it undercut its 200 day SMA, Friday did register a spinning top candle which often forecasts changes in the direction of the recent trend. Bulls obviously want to see that index recapture its 200 day SMA which is still firmly sloping higher, something which its 50 day SMA is not doing. It is hard to blame recent weakness on the political happenings as two of the sectors that did much of the heavy lifting since the election last year, the semiconductors and transports, were acting soft for some time. The IYT is now lower by 7% from its most recent 52 week highs and has lost ground 4 of the last 5 weeks and more concerning is how quickly the good looking cup base breakout from a 173.98 trigger the week ending 7/7 fell apart (the move in the airlines has contributed greatly with JETS down 12% from recent highs). Breakouts that fall apart that fast are often a poor sign, and todays move below the 200 day SMA is yet another warning. As always it pays to be simple and wait for the trades that offer the best risk/reward. Below is the chart of NFLX, and how it appeared in out Thursday 8/17 Game Plan, which Friday recorded a bullish inverted hammer candle. One will know relatively quickly if they are wrong.
Stocks that can be thought of as shorting opportunities are FND IPHI. FND is a recent homebuilder periphery IPO higher by 4% since inception in late April, but lower by 29% from recent highs. It obviously has just a small sample of earnings reactions with mixed results with a gain of 11.1% on 5/26 and a loss of 6.7% on 7/28. The stock is lower 6 of last 8 weeks with this week showing big weakness off by 7.9% (3 of the other down weeks lost 5% or more). Its 50 day SMA is now sloping lower and trouble began with bearish engulfing candle on 6/22 at all time highs. Look to short FND with sell stop below bear flag trigger of 32.75 which carries a measured move to 24.
Trigger FND 32.75. Buy stop 34.40.
IPHI is a semiconductor laggard lower by 21% YTD and 16% over last one year period and now 32% off most recent 52 week highs. Earnings have been mostly higher with gains of 3.1, 8 and 17% on 8/8, 11/2 and 8/9/16, an UNCH finish on 2/8 and a loss of 10.8% on 5/3. The stock is lower 3 of the last 4 weeks and problems since filling in gap near round 40 number from 5/2 (pierced 40 number during 5 week losing streak that lost 28% between weeks ending 4/7-5/5). IPHI has formed a bearish descending triangle pattern and short with sell stop below 34 which carries measured move to 24. Notice the very wide and loose trade, hallmark bearish characteristics.
Trigger IPHI 34. Buy stop 35.85.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out bull flag formations are ANET SEDG. ANET is a best in breed networking play higher by 78% YTD and 127% over last one year period. It has excellent earnings consistency with four consecutive positive reactions gaining 19.4, 3.2, 18.9 and 1.5% on 8/4, 5/5, 2/17 and 11/4. The stock has doubled during current 22 of 31 week winning streak and has shown solid action POST break above 159.10 double bottom trigger on 8/4. ANET has a bull flag forming at all time highs and shrugged off tough week and is right back at CLOSING highs from big week ending 8/4 that jumped more than 14%. Enter with a buy stop above 175 carries measured move to 197.
Trigger ANET 175. Stop 171.
SEDG is a solar play higher by 115% YTD and 46% over last one year period. Earnings momentum is headed firmly in the right direction with three consecutive gains, and each one better than the last, higher by 20.8, 11 and 4.1% on 8/3, 5/10 and 2/15 after a small loss of .7% on 11/10. The stock is higher 16 of the last 21 weeks and has declined the last two by almost 6%. A move above 30 could accelerate long cup base that began week ending 6/26/15 (weeks ending 1/8 and 2/5/16 were stopped at the round 30 figure). Enter SEDG with buy stop above a bull flag trigger of 28 which carries a measured move to 34.
Trigger SEDG 28. Stop 26.30.
Stocks that can be bought after recent bullish engulfing candles are CLVS. CLVS is a healthcare name higher by 62% YTD and 327% over last one year period. Earnings momentum has been headed the wrong way with three consecutive negative reactions dropping 5.1, 3.6 and 3.7% on 8/3, 5/4 and 2/23 after a loss of 4.6% on 11/4. The stock rose just 1.4 this week after the prior 2 slumped by a combined 30%, not the best showing. The round numbers have played a role with the very round par number acting as resistance on 7/28 and now it seems to be finding a floor at the 70 figure and todays bullish engulfing candle was encouraging especially after Thursday spinning top candle too. Enter CLVS at 71 (we were WRONG about this name recently in 7/6 report).